What new strategy will Vingegaard try against Pogačar?

Does Visma have any new tricks? Have they exhausted all the possibilities? Should they pray?

Visma Lease-a-Bike had a different attack plan to defeat Tadej Pogačar in the 2025 Tour. It was simple and violent: Hit the Slovenian with everything they had from day one until Paris.

It didn’t work. Pogačar still won his 4th Tour by a margin of 4 minutes, 23 seconds. A commanding victory that never really seemed in doubt — at least from the outside.

So, the Visma question for this Tour is Now What? How does Vingegaard take his 3rd overall victory against a rival that has consistently beaten him, even when the Dane claimed his power numbers were never better.

We’re sure that Visma management and sports directors have been scheming since the day after the race ended in Paris. What strategy might they possibly try this time around?

But here’s the thing: was their strategy in the 2025 Tour really wrong? Might it be worth it to hammer Pogacar again, from the opening stage in Barcelona?

You could build a strong case for that. And it’s worth revisiting all the quotes from Pogačar at the conclusion of the Tour. Here’s a few gems worth pondering.

1 “This Tour was one of the hardest I’ve ridden, as anyone fighting for the general classification would confirm… You can’t expect me to be smiling through all 21 stages.”

2 “I ask myself why I’m still here – it’s so long these three weeks. You count the kilometres to Paris and yes, I can’t wait for it to be over.”

3 “My increasing fatigue may have been my biggest challenge this year.”

4 “I’ve started counting the years until retirement.”

5 “I’ve gone through that difficult final week of the Tour where the physical and mental drain were clear… This Tour was one of the hardest I’ve ridden.”

6 “Oh, I’m obviously tired… it’s not been [an] easy Tour. People [were] attacking me from left, right, and from day one to the end.”

From these admissions, we see that the Visma All Out War, Scorched Earth, Cage Match strategy worked. Physically and mentally, they had Pogačar on the ropes. He was perilously close to the dreaded Jour Sans. Visma just couldn’t quite crack him — but by the end of the Tour the Slovenian was entertaining the idea of early retirement.

Visma took Pogačar to his absolute limits — he was exhausted, mentally fried; he’d lost his typical joie de vivre and one of his knees was in bad shape. He probably just dodged a cold, too.

So there’s a strong argument that Visma doesn’t need to invent some new plan of attack. Then add in the one big change they did make — Vingegaard riding — and winning — the Giro D’Italia. If they’re convinced that the Italian grand tour will make him stronger — not weaker — then he’s ready to hammer on stage 1.

The counter argument to this constant aggression is that while it did wear down Pogacar — it also exhausted Vingegaard and his entire team. Everbody was on their knees in week three. And this strategy would seem even tougher to execute this year because the UAE Team Emirates XRG squad is generally seen as the strongest in the race.

Once upon a Tour, Vingegaard had Primoz Roglic to take turns working over Pogačar in the mountains. While Sepp Kuss is a powerful climber, he’s not a plan B. Meanwhile UAE has the services of an on-form Isaac Del Toro. The Mexican rider has a strong shot at the podium and will happy force Vingegaard to chase him up the Pyrenees and Alps.

So, what’s the magic strategy for Visma and Vingegaard? I have no idea. Buy every lucky charm you can find. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility, that Visma goes full gas right from the gun because that plan did work. They almost broke Pogačar and it’s worth trying again.

Careful doesn’t win this Tour de France for the Dane.